Srinagar, Oct 07 (KNS): Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah’s latest indication that he will take up the long-pending cabinet expansion after the GST Council meeting and consultations with National Conference president Farooq Abdullah has brought the issue back into sharp political focus, but the exercise remains a difficult call for the Chief Minister with several party legislators aspiring for ministerial berths.
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‎Speaking to reporters in Srinagar on Wednesday, Omar said the Assembly session had concluded and the cabinet exercise could have been undertaken, but his immediate engagement was the GST Council meeting in Delhi. “Tomorrow the GST Council meeting is in Delhi. So we will complete it and then we will consult with Dr Farooq Abdullah, party president, and we will do what we have to do,” he said as per KNS.
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‎Omar, however, did not announce any specific date for the expansion or reshuffle, leaving the timing dependent on the consultations with the NC president after his return from Delhi.
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‎The latest statement comes after months of speculation and several timelines around the cabinet exercise. Omar had first linked the proposed expansion and reshuffle with the National Conference’s Jantar Mantar protest for restoration of statehood. He had indicated before the protest that the exercise could take place around the programme, but the cabinet was not expanded after the Delhi demonstration.
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‎The Chief Minister subsequently said the exercise would not take place before August 15, again fuelling expectations within the party. That deadline too passed without any change in the Council of Ministers.
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‎The Assembly’s autumn session then became another possible window for the exercise. Sources had indicated that Omar was reluctant to undertake the reshuffle before the session because ministers had to defend the functioning of their respective departments on the floor of the House. The session concluded on September 30, but the cabinet remained unchanged. Reports subsequently suggested that the exercise could be taken up around the second anniversary of the NC-led government.
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‎Omar’s latest remarks have now revived the possibility that the government could finally move on the issue, though there is still no official confirmation on whether the exercise will involve only an expansion, a reshuffle of portfolios or both.
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‎The political difficulty for Omar lies in the limited number of positions available.
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‎Under the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, the Council of Ministers cannot exceed one-tenth of the total strength of the 90-member Legislative Assembly. The present Council has six members, including Omar, leaving three vacancies.
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‎Three vacancies, however, are being viewed within the NC as insufficient to accommodate the number of legislators who believe they have a claim to a ministerial position.
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‎The party has several senior legislators with long Assembly experience, including veterans who have represented their constituencies for multiple terms. Former minister and NC general secretary Ali Mohammad Sagar, for instance, is a five-time MLA. Other senior legislators with substantial Assembly experience are also among those whose political weight makes the cabinet choice particularly sensitive.
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‎For Omar, the problem is therefore not simply identifying competent faces for three vacant positions. It is deciding which legislators can be accommodated without alienating those who are left out.
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‎Political analysts believe the prolonged delay itself reflects the difficulty of making that choice.
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‎“Once the number of aspirants becomes much larger than the number of available berths, a cabinet expansion becomes a political exercise rather than an administrative one. The Chief Minister has to calculate the reaction of those who are left out as much as the benefits of those who are inducted,” said a political analyst.
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‎Another analyst said the issue could become a test of Omar’s authority within the party.
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‎“Every cabinet expansion creates winners and losers. In the present circumstances, the number of aspirants is large and the space is very limited. If some senior legislators are repeatedly overlooked, it can create resentment within the party,” the analyst said.
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‎Sources in political circles said some legislators and their supporters have been lobbying for ministerial berths and are increasingly impatient over the delay. There is also apprehension within the party that continued exclusion of prominent aspirants could translate into open dissent or internal pressure against the leadership.
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‎While talk of legislators “rebelling” against the party remains a political assessment rather than an established development, analysts say the possibility of intra-party dissent is one of the factors Omar cannot ignore while finalising the three names.Click Here To Follow Our WhatsApp Channel
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‎“The danger for Omar is not that someone simply does not get a ministry. It is whether disappointment among multiple aspirants begins to acquire an organised political form inside the party,” another analyst said.
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‎The cabinet exercise is also expected to test the balance between seniority and the demand for new faces.
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‎The National Conference has several experienced legislators outside the existing ministry, while some younger leaders and first-time legislators have also emerged as important political voices within the party. The Chief Minister will consequently have to decide whether the exercise should reward seniority and previous ministerial experience or bring in newer faces to strengthen the government.
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‎The Congress question had added another complication earlier in the process.
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‎Before August 15, the National Conference had offered its alliance partner a cabinet berth as part of the proposed expansion. The Congress, however, did not accept the offer and subsequently maintained that it would not join the government until Jammu and Kashmir’s statehood and constitutional rights were restored.
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‎The Congress refusal means Omar does not have to set aside one of the limited positions for the alliance partner. But politically, it has made the choice within the NC even more consequential because the available berths can now potentially be used to accommodate party legislators.
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‎“The Congress offer was one way of managing coalition representation. Once Congress declined, the entire question shifted back to the NC and its internal aspirations. That has made the Chief Minister’s task more difficult, not easier,” said the analyst.
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‎The Congress had been offered one berth in the proposed exercise, while the party had maintained that it would remain outside the government until restoration of statehood. The issue is therefore no longer a fresh development but part of the background against which Omar is now considering the expansion.
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‎The possibility of a reshuffle-cum-expansion has also generated speculation over existing ministers.
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‎Omar may have to decide whether the exercise should merely fill the three vacant positions or whether portfolios of some sitting ministers should also be changed. Several ministers are currently handling multiple departments, and the delay has already generated criticism within political circles over the distribution of portfolios and departmental workload.
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‎A wider reshuffle would give Omar an opportunity to address administrative concerns while also accommodating new faces. But it could make the political exercise more sensitive if sitting ministers lose important portfolios or are dropped.
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‎The Chief Minister’s decision will therefore have implications on three levels, government functioning, internal NC equations and the political balance within the ruling coalition.
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‎The timing is also significant. The NC-led government will complete two years in office on October 16, making the cabinet question increasingly difficult to keep pending. Earlier reports had indicated that the second anniversary could become a possible window for the exercise.
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‎For months, Omar’s shifting timelines have allowed the issue to remain unresolved without a direct confrontation within the party. But with the Assembly session over and the Chief Minister now explicitly saying he will discuss the matter with Farooq Abdullah after the GST Council meeting, the pressure for a decision has increased.
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‎Political analysts say the consultation with Farooq Abdullah could be particularly important because the exercise involves not just administrative requirements but the political interests of senior NC leaders.
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‎“Omar will ultimately have to own the decision, but consultation with Farooq Abdullah gives the party leadership an opportunity to assess the wider political consequences of the choices. The question is how many disappointed aspirants the party can accommodate politically if only three berths are available,” the analyst said.
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‎The cabinet expansion has thus moved from being a routine question of filling vacancies to becoming a test of Omar Abdullah’s ability to manage the competing expectations of a party that returned to power after a decade.
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‎Three berths are available. The number of claimants is much larger. And for Omar Abdullah, the political challenge is not only deciding who enters the cabinet, but managing those who are left outside it.(KNS)