Aasif Malik

Srinagar, Oct 20 (KNS): Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh recorded an electricity deficit of 13 million units (MU) in September despite consuming less power than originally projected, while peak demand exceeded estimates by 235 megawatts (MW), according to provisional figures placed before the Northern Regional Power Committee (NRPC).

The figures, contained in the agenda for the NRPC's 248th Operation Coordination Committee meeting scheduled for October 22, reveal significant differences between anticipated and actual electricity demand and availability across the two Union Territories.

According to the agenda, issued on October 16, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh together required 1,506 MU of electricity during September against actual availability of 1,493 MU, resulting in a deficit of 13 MU.

The shortage amounted to approximately 0.9 per cent of the total electricity requirement.

However, the actual energy requirement was considerably lower than the original projection of 1,596 MU.

This means the two Union Territories consumed 90 MU less electricity than anticipated during the month, a decline of approximately 5.6 per cent against the forecast.

Despite the lower requirement, the electricity available to meet demand fell even more sharply.

The NRPC figures show that electricity availability had initially been projected at 2,119 MU, but actual availability stood at just 1,493 MU.

The difference of 626 MU represents a decline of approximately 29.5 per cent from the anticipated availability.

The figures indicate that lower-than-expected electricity demand was not sufficient to prevent a supply deficit because actual availability also fell below the requirement.

The provisional data also reveal a different trend in peak electricity demand.

While the monthly energy requirement remained below projections, the maximum electricity requirement during September reached 2,735 MW against an anticipated 2,500 MW.

The difference of 235 MW represents an increase of 9.4 per cent over the projected peak requirement.

This contrast is significant because monthly energy consumption and peak electricity demand measure different aspects of power use.

Monthly energy requirement represents the total electricity needed over the period, while peak demand measures the maximum power required at a particular point.

Consequently, a region can consume less electricity over an entire month than anticipated while still experiencing periods of higher-than-expected demand.

The NRPC figures show that the actual peak demand of 2,735 MW was met during September.

The agenda does not report a separate peak-demand deficit for the two Union Territories during the month.

The distinction is important because the recorded 13-MU energy deficit does not establish that electricity supply fell short during the period of maximum demand.Click Here To Follow Our WhatsApp Channel

The provisional figures nevertheless raise questions about the accuracy of electricity forecasting and the arrangements used to assess anticipated availability.

The NRPC has sought explanations from states and Union Territories reporting significant differences between projected and actual electricity demand and availability.

Such variations are important for power-system planning because electricity procurement, generation scheduling and transmission arrangements depend on estimates of future demand.

If demand is underestimated, utilities may need to arrange additional electricity at short notice. Conversely, inaccurate availability projections can complicate decisions about how much electricity needs to be procured in advance.

The September figures do not identify the specific reasons behind the decline in anticipated electricity availability for Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.

The agenda also does not establish whether the variation resulted from changes in generation, power purchases, scheduling or other operational factors.

Those details would require clarification from the concerned power utilities and load despatch authorities.

The findings assume added significance ahead of winter, when electricity demand in Kashmir generally rises because of heating requirements.

In its November assessment, the NRPC has projected a combined peak electricity shortfall of 623 MW for Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.

The two Union Territories are expected to require 3,813 MW at peak demand against anticipated availability of 3,190 MW.

The November energy requirement is projected at 1,999 MU against availability of 1,810 MU, indicating a possible deficit of 189 MU.

Unlike the September figures, which represent provisional actual data, the November estimates are forecasts and do not establish that the projected shortage will materialise.

The NRPC agenda records that no revised November power-supply position had been submitted for Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh at the time the document was prepared.

The regional committee has asked the concerned authorities to provide updated estimates and measures proposed to bridge anticipated gaps between electricity demand and availability.

The September data, meanwhile, show that electricity planning in the two Union Territories faced substantial forecasting variations even before the winter season.

With the October 22 NRPC meeting approaching, the reasons for the September discrepancies and the reliability of the November projections remain important questions for the region's power-sector authorities.(KNS)